We're 20% through the day starting Round 7 with 176,550 in chips. I miscounted as I exited for the bathroom at the end of Round 6 (those of you paying attention will recall I wrote 165,525 in chips). On the walk to the bathroom I thought about the big wins of about 35,000 and knew that with the small wins, even considering all the times I folded and lost blinds and antes, my count was off.
Here we go playing 300 600 with 75 antes. That means 1575 in the pot before we get cards.
S8 raises weakly to 1200 and we call from the BB with K6h. Flop comes 36Q with 1 heart. We check and he weak bets again 1200. We call and another Q turns. We check and he checks. River comes T. We bet 2800 and he calls with 7To. He was bluffing all the way to the River where he hit a winning card. Oh well, sustainable losses are okay.
We play a few small hands and win them all. Then we raise to 1550 from S7 with QK and get called by the button. Flop comes 9TQ and we bet 1500. He calls. Turn comes Q. Fantastico. We bet 2800 and he calls. River comes 8. If he has a J we're dead. We check and he bets 3000. Kind of weak if he has a J. Plus, if he does, he has to worry that we have JK or a full house, so raising is relatively safe. We raise to 9000 and he calls, which is what we were hoping for. He shows AJ to take the pot. Not what we were hoping for. Our first big loss today. Still, losing 15000 with 3 queens against a straight is not the worst possible result.
We limp from S7 with 68c and S8 raises to 2300. Everyone folds, but the pot odds and the 45000 S7 has push us to call. Flop comes Q77 with one club. We check, he bets 2500 and we fold.
We limp from S3 with 66 and S5 raises to 1900. The SB calls and we call. The flop comes 47Q. We bet 3500 and S5 calls. Turn comes J. Not good. We check, he bets, we fold.
This happens again in very similar fashion and rather than get disgruntled, we tighten up. Losing 5-10,000 is not terrible, but doing it repeatedly is. Pretty simple logic right? That's what makes me confident that even a Donkey can do this.
S6 weak bets to 1200 and we raise to 3600 from S7 with AQ. S8 comes over for 9600 and everyone folds to us. It's 6000 to call a pot of 16,000. Tempting, we like the AQ, but what happens after the flop? If we hit a Q, we have to worry he has AA or KK. If we hit an A, we have to worry he has AK. He's acting behind us and has 60,000 in chips. This is never going to be comfortable. We fold.
In seat 5 we raise to 1350 with AJ. The BB is absent from the table, so it's prime stealing time. We get called by S6 and the flop comes 6JQ. We bet 2250 hoping he doesn't have a Q and he folds. Good result. Let's pick up some more nickels and dimes; we have some catching up to do.
S6, 8 and 9 limp and we limp from the SB with K9. Even suited we don't like this hand, but for 300 we'll see the flop. Candidly, thought about raising all the limpers out pre-flop, but had some fear of hitting a slow playing big pair. Anyway, BB checks and we see the flop 3TK with 2 hearts. We bet 1400 and everyone folds. Guess no one had a K, 2 hearts, a JQ or a set. All good.
We raise to 1350 with QQ in S8. The button and the SB call and we see the 389 rainbow flop. Should be good for us. SB checks and we bet 3400. Button calls and SB raises to 11,000. Wow! He either thinks I'm bluffing and he thinks the Button thinks I'm bluffing or he has a hand. Doubtful he has a set as he wouldn't bet so much; he would slow play a little. He likely has 2 pair. In light of the pre-flop betting, probably 89 as opposed to 83 or 93. Alternatively, he could have an open ended straight draw and be semi-bluffing and hoping we fold (e.g. TJ hoping to hit a 7 or Q). We call, creating a massive pot, about 30,000. The Button folds. Turn comes 3 and SB checks. That's a good sign he has 89 or a straight draw. Now he's checking because he's afraid I have a pocket pair of Ts or better to make a better 2 pair than he has. If he is so worried, he's right. If he has a straight draw, we should bet to not give him a free shot at the straight, but more likely he has 2 pair. We check to see the river hoping a Q will come resolve this for us. River comes 2 - total rag, but that's fine. He checks, which is a great sign we have him beat. Otherwise, he's missed 2 opportunities to bet. We bet 12,500 and he goes into the tank. This is the same guy who beat our set of Qs with a straight just a bit ago and we start to worry that he could push and leave us in quite a quandary. We start to regret betting 12,500 and giving him that opportunity. Then we come to our senses and realize the delay now doesn't impact his decisions thus far which pretty much dictate that he has 89 (the delay does nix the idea that he has a straight draw as he would have mucked already). Eventually he calls and shows 89. This is, by the way, one of the only times I've actually read someone's hand this clearly. We pick it up with Qs and 3s. Giddey-up!
We've just eclipsed (by 125 in chips) the 200,000 mark!
S5 limps and we call from S8 with A8. S9 and the blinds limp and 5 of us see the flop with a pot just over 4000. Flop comes 28T with 2 clubs and S5 bets 1850. We call as he could have anything and be trying to buy the pot; everyone else folds. Turn comes Q. He checks and we check. Unlikely that hit him, but he will think the same of us, so no point betting to push him out (just in case he does have a T). River comes A. Fantastic except now there's 3 clubs on the board. He bets 3200. He could have a flush, or he could have been hoping to trap me on the turn and have a set. We just call. Tight and conservative. He shows TQ for 2 pair and we take it down with Aces and Eights, which I believe is referred to as the "Dead Man's Hand". He was slow playing when the Q hit, but I misread his hand as much as I honed in on the 89. I'd rather be lucky than good!
We close a big Round 7, 40% through the day, with 206,850 in chips! They're "racing off" the 25s now, so we will win or lose 50 during the break. Players change all their 25s in for 100s, but if you have orphaned 25s, as I do, you compete with all the other orphan holders by a high card process to see who gets the 100 chips. I got 22 for my 2 25s when they came to me, so others at my table took the 100s - oh well, we lost the 50.
Hopefully more good stuff in 2 hours!
All the best,
Eric Kurtzman
Kurtzman Carson Consultants
2335 Alaska Ave
El Segundo, CA 90245
voice (310) 751-1500
fax (310) 751-1550
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